Julia Meigh

The Fed recently released a working paper that highlights the promising potential of prediction markets for forecasting economic data releases. The study scrapes trade-level data from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market, which allows for trading on economic indicators. The platform offers event-based contracts for headline figures, such as inflation, interest rates, GDP growth and employment. The price of a “yes” contract was treated as the market’s baseline expectation...

The 2025 US government shutdown exposed a critical vulnerability in the global economic data ecosystem: when official statistics go dark, markets still need signals. In response, the Fed provided information about the alternative datasets it uses to guide monetary policy decisions — ranging from private-sector inflation trackers to real-time labour market indicators. While these datasets have quietly informed policy for years, their recent prominence highlights both the limitations of...

The recent scrutiny of official economic data has led to a surge in demand for alternative sources that can provide more accurate measurements of macroeconomic performance. Alternative macro data may soon become ubiquitous.