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The Fed recently released a working paper that highlights the promising potential of prediction markets for forecasting economic data releases. The study scrapes trade-level data from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market, which allows for trading on economic indicators. The platform offers event-based contracts for headline figures, such as inflation, interest rates, GDP growth and employment. The price of a “yes” contract was treated as the market’s bas

The 2025 US government shutdown exposed a critical vulnerability in the global economic data ecosystem: when official statistics go dark, markets still need signals. In response, the Fed provided information about the alternative datasets it uses to guide monetary policy decisions — ranging from private-sector inflation trackers to real-time labour market indicators. While these datasets have quietly informed policy for years, their recent prominence highlights both the limit

The recent scrutiny of official economic data has led to a surge in demand for alternative sources that can provide more accurate measurements of macroeconomic performance. Alternative macro data may soon become ubiquitous.